The 3Cs of 2019: Conflicts, contraction and confidence : Article by Dr. VP Singh

The world saw India in a sweet spot in the months before 2019. Quarterly growth rate kept rising with Q2 clocking 8 per cent displaying fastest economic growth rate globally. Inflation was quite low. But, 2019 being election year made the preceding period fertile with forces that could change sentiments of people and thus fortunes of political parties. Thus, India rode into 2019 saddled with conflicts. For instance, adequacy of ‘reserves’ held with RBI; the security of Aadhar data; Victimization in CBI; Appropriateness of Rafale Deal etc. The common man discussed these issues without having access to adequate data. Yet opinions got formed on whether government is usurping the autonomy of the institutions. Conflict resolution largely went in favour of the government, yet, the economy slowed down under the weight of the uncertainties of the intervening period. With election in sight, various groups experienced increased bargaining power as 2018Q3 growth rate fell to 7 percent, unimpressive IIP growth of 1.7 percent and inflation showing downside risk.

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