HERE WE GO AGAIN: THE US IS BACK IN IRAQ – BY Dr. BOBBY SRINIVASAN

August 11, 2014 | Posted by bobbysrinivasan << back to blog

The US is back in Iraq. In 2011, with much fanfare and publicity, the US army walked out of Iraq, vowing not to enter into the combat again. Their resolve was tested again and again by the ISIS and finally the US decided to get involved again. The US warplanes bombed the Islamic fighters (ISIS – Sunni rebels) marching on Iraq’s Kurdish capital in the north, Irbil. This is the hub of US oil firms and the nerve centre of the US operations in Iraq. The ISIS militants have been shelling the Kurdish forces continuously. The ISIS has already seen success and it has expanded its hold in northern Iraq driving back Kurdish forces and causing the Christians to flee.

President Obama, who had it well all these days with peace in the Middle East, is now forced to act. He said and I quote, “we can act carefully and responsibly to prevent a potential act of genocide….but even as we support Iraqis, American combat troops will not be returning to Iraq to fight”. In the meanwhile, a pentagon spokesperson said two FIA-18 fighter jobs from an aircraft carrier in the Gulf dropped bombs on a military mobile artillery piece used by the fighters to shell Kurdish forces defending Irbil. This action constituted the deepest US engagement in Iraq since its troop withdrawal.

The question now is whether it is a temporary act or the US being sucked in? Is it only a matter of time before we see the troops landing again and even if they did, what are they solving? The first lesson the US should learn is that in Iraq every ethnic group hates every others. The Sunnis don’t like the Shias. The Shias don’t like the Kurds, the Kurds don’t like the Sunnis and the minority Christians are caught in the mess. There are also minor sects like the minority Yazidi sect who live on Mount Sinjar. They are approximately 40000 of them and this war has basically blocked them to stay where they are. They are starving. The US is currently engaged in airdrop supplies.

What does all this mean? The threat of a major civil war is in the offing in Iraq. This is very similar to what our country went through in 1947 before partition. The genocide is real and the death toll will mount up. The citizens of Iraq have nowhere to go but to stay and fight among themselves. During the times of Saddam Hussain, atleast the Sunnis were ruling the roost and the Shias and the Kurds held their peace to stay alive.

Can the country be split? It possibly can. Everybody namely, the Sunnis, Shias and Kurds need a homeland. Is it going to be easy to separate them and put them in separate countries? That is what the British and the French did in 1918 when they broke up the Ottoman Empire into separate states. Because of the bombing by the US, the entire Iraq will be on the move, namely people searching for shelters and safer places. This may result in refugees seeking new homes. Iran is already worried about the refugee arrivals as they have their own ethnic issues. In short, the US bombing in Iraq increases the potential of a full-scale war in the Middle East.

This will spike up the oil prices and this is the last thing we Indians want. Also, the war may have negative repercussions on the financial markets. The US bond yield may move up and the Dow Jones may end up going south. This will also affect our sensex, which is supported by the FII money. Whenever they pull out, our stock market takes a heavy beating.

Thus we are entering into a period of global uncertainty. It is harder to visualize what the possible outcomes will be but for sure, it will not make the outcome good for India.

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