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US treasuries – who owns it? By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 25, 2015
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The US public debt is currently around US $ 19 trillion. This is no small change and the Federal debt burden will be distributed across the entire current and future American population. The per capita debt will exceed US $ 50,000. Granted that the US managers, mutual funds, pension funds and individuals have gobbled up…

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Global Economic growth –What do the Economic Pundits forecast By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 20, 2015
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As is expected, the current global economic environment carries too many uncertainities. On the one hand China, wide the second largest economy in terms Purchase Power Parity (PPP) is threatening to devalue their Yuan to take away the bigger chunk of the shrinking globalized trade, the US Fed Reserve is toying with the idea of…

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GDP and Indian Foreign Trade By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 20, 2015
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It is useful to recall the four basic components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These components are Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government spending (G) and net exports, consisting of exports (X), minus imports (M). The overall growth definition is expressed in the following equation GDP = C+I+G=(X-M)   An economy that is in trouble will…

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The spread between junk and US Treasury bond – A sign of things to come By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 20, 2015
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The total value of the traded US stock is currently around US $ 23 trillion. This of course is a huge number. But it is around half the value of all US bonds outstanding between corporate bonds, treasury bonds, mortgage bonds and other varieties. There is 40 trillion dollar worth of bonds outstanding in the…

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The China US trade – the next global economic crisis By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 20, 2015
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The horrendous trade surplus enjoyed by China, over several years was not easily absorbed and created vast amounts of Yuan as it had to buy the dollars from the traders at a fixed exchange rate. In 1997 the US trade deficit with China was less than US $ 50 billion a relatively small amount. Then…

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The sad story of an emerging economy: Russia By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 17, 2015
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It has been written widely that the emerging economy will take over the leadership from the emerged economies to achieve high economic growth in the future. The emerged economies such as the US and the Eurozone which currently contribute nearly 50% of GDP will need to take a breather and provide adequate liquidity to the…

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Indian Nifty future: A rude awakening waiting to happen By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 17, 2015
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The Indian Nifty index after touching 9000 a year ago and is currently trading around 7750 (Nov 15, 2015) and waiting to drop to 7000 and below in the next few months. This will be due to the various economic events that are likely to take place in the world which will bring the global…

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Oil price and ISIS Levant By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 17, 2015
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In the weeks to come, the dastardly and heinous crime perpetrated by the ISIS terrorists in and around Paris will have become history, when the world moves to deal with the next big issue that is in the offing. The pain of loss and suffering will become the concern of the near and dear relatives…

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Volatility is investors friend – True or false By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 17, 2015
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The Indian Sensex after having touched a high of near 30,000 a year ago and it is currently (11.11.2015) trading at 25,500. A drop of nearly 15% should have enthused the investing public to move in to the market in order to gain from the low values. We generally believe that what goes down must…

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US Federal Reserve rate hike By Dr. Bobby Srinivasan and Dr. Sudhakar Balachandran

Posted by bobbysrinivasan on November 17, 2015
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The US Fed open market next meeting is scheduled for December 15, 2015. All analysis is expect a rate hike in the federal funds rate at least by 25 basis points. The market has already reacted to this expected announcement. The US dollar index which traded between 93 and 98 for the last 6 months…

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