This is a sad story in the marking. The misadventure of Public Sector Banks needs to be addressed sooner or later. According to the data available Public Sector Banks account 70% of all total banking assets. It is also estimated that 74 trillion rupees is the total banking sector credit of which 50 trillion rupees happens to be the Public Sector Banks. This is a conversation between a Student and his Professor.
Student: Professor, I am uncomfortable asking this question. How much of the public sector banks assets are stressed?
Professor: It is good question. The data I have shows that 10 trillion of the 50 trillion Rupee deposits are stressed. This amounts to 20% of all deposits.
Student: It is clear to me from your response that somebody has to accept the liability. Who are the deposit holders in the bank?
Professor: We can broadly classify the deposit holders as belonging to government sector, corporate sector and individuals. The individual holding is around 3.5 trillion rupees. Government sector 10 trillion rupees and the corporate sector 14 trillion. The household sector not counting individuals and foreign sector hold the balance.
Student: Now that the picture is somewhat clear. Who do you think will pay the price?
Professor: You are basically asking about who will take the haircut. I feel that the following procedure will be followed.
First step: Separate the stressed assets from the non-stressed assets.
Second step: A bank or a collection agency will be created to monetize the stressed asset. This will involve selling the assets below the cost price.
Third step: Assuming 80% of the stressed asset of 10 trillion becomes encashed the loss is 2 trillion rupees.
Fourth step: The government sector could absorb the two trillion rupee losses.
Fifth step: This has to be done in such a way that a liquidity crisis does not arise.
Student: Will the government accept the liability?
Professor: I hope so. The public sector banks pumped nearly 80% of its money into large scale both public and private sector, infrastructure, projects. All these lending have failed miserably. The government could smartly add this amount to the budget debt. This will automatically push either the taxes up as the amount of interest rate payment could easily swell up. People are in for trouble. They are already facing the possibility of higher GST rate. The tax concession in the present budget is minimal. Infact it punishes people who earn 50 lakh or more per year.
Student: What can anybody do about it?
Professor: Become aware. Finally it will affect the value of rupee against the dollar. From a level of 1 Rupee one Dollar, now 1 Dollar fetches 68 Rupees. The Rupees value is bound to be affected. The Public Sector Banks misadventure cannot easily disappear and the truth is starkly looking at the Modi Government. Indian government is hiding under a carpet blaming the UPA Government for these misdoings. At the opportune time our government will lay it on us. If there is any lesson to learn, our government banks are not that big but can fail also.
Student: Scary. Thanks Professor.
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