I remember a conversation in 2009 with my younger brother who then was living in New Jersey USA. He began the conversation with such pessimistic note. His stocks due to sub-prime crisis had dropped nearly 40%. (Then the Dow Jones dropped from 16000 to 6000). His house price was down by nearly 30% from the peak. His shipping business in which he had 10 people working and he had to lay off 5. His business dwindled but he survived. The Dow Jones index is now around 17000. The real estate price has picked up. His shipping business though slow is slowly picking up. So nothing is forever booms and crashes. It will come go but one should have the belief that things will get back to normalcy eventually. This is a conversation between a professor and his student.
Student: Tell me how does one become a believer during tough times that better days will come. Your blogs tell me that the commodity prices have crashed. Gold has dropped from a peak of $ 1930 an Oz to $ 1070 today. Silver has dropped from $ 44 an Oz $ 14 an Oz today. Copper has dropped from $ 11000 to $ 4900. The WTI crude oil which saw 120 dollars a barrel is now $ 40. To cap it all even the wheat, soya and corn prices are down 50% from peak in price internationally.
Professor: Thank your stars that you are in school. What is going on in the real world is indeed frightening. Look at it this way. The new opportunity is waiting to happen. The Sensex stock index which touched 30000 will soon reach 20000 because of impending Chinese devaluation and the US interest rate hike. The P.E. ratio will come to comfortable level. The current real estate in India has a long way to go down in terms of correction. If you wait, you may be able to pick up properties 30 to 40% cheaper. Of course, wait for gold to drop more, you can start accumulating gold for a longer planning horizon.
Student: Thanks for encouraging my hopes. But tell me why this type of price drop is happening?
Professor: I will guess. Too much liquidity, irresponsible credit growth, unjustified optimism followed by greed. As is often said greed will give away to fear and panic. Currently the financial system is at the beginning of the panic cycle. The peak of panic will come in 2016-17. Currency devaluations, money moving out of emerging markets, banks non-performing assets reaching new high will all happen. This is just a repetition of history.
Student: Tell me how I can take advantage of all those you have mentioned.
Professor: There is a saying in the market. You can make money when the market is going up. You can make money when the market is going down. You can infact make more money when the market is moving sideways. This covers all possibilities. Learn trading become familiar with derivative and future instruments. Right now I am celebrating the decline of euro buy buying dollar and the results are fabulous.
Student: I will try to join your course and learn these things.
Professor: Economic independence can be clearly achieved by learning to trade. It is based on knowledge skill and implementation. Always be a well-informed trader, nimble and ready to act. Good luck in all you efforts.
Student: Thanks you Sir. My hopes are returning.
Leave a Reply